World renowned economist Robert Shiller, the Co-Creator of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US Home Price Index, doesn't often speak on economic or Housing issues, but when. he does, people do listen an d take notice. After following Shiller over the past number of years, it is clear that he has his own method of stating what is going to happen to the US Housing Market, that has to be deciphered and discussed. Clearly a man in his position is reluctant to simply come out and state that the Housing Market is poised for a crash. The impact would send the markets reeling. Instead, he speaks conservatively and in innuendo and therefore you have to read between the lines to understand what he is really saying. In this case, he is saying that we are going to have a crash.
Let's talk a walk down memory lane, back about 7 months ago to the start of 2022. The Housing outlook revolved around continued Home Price Appreciation growth as well as Rental Rate increases. Many journalists and writers were on record stating that the Housing Market is healthy and that nothing was in the way or preventing the price points from continuing their upward trajectory. Well, fast forward to where we are today and everyone is now signing a different tune. Economists, Analysts and more journalists are openly talking about a Housing Crash and the volume of Foreclosures that are on the way. A total Boom to Bust swing in perspective for the US Housing Market.
Yet another Housing Market issue with the iBuyer group. First it was Zillow with the catastrophic failure of the buy and sell business. Now we find that Opendoor allegedly mislead customers (Home Sellers) that they would make more money selling to them, rather than going down the traditional Real Estate Agent & MLS listing route. Opendoor agreed to settle for $ 62 Million. The very next day they announced a new "product" for Homeowners, which should buy them some much needed goodwill.
So everyday there are more and more articles published by various Real Estate related organizations, groups, journalists, etc. that are providing their take or opinion regarding the future of the Housing Market and the potential of a Housing Correction or Housing Crash. This video reviews a recent article from RedFin who "ranked" various US Metro locations as to their susceptibility of a downturn in a Recession. The list is focused on Metros that had a spike in Home Price Appreciation over the past couple years, suggesting that those locations should be watched closely.
Will the FED's recent increase in rates have affects on future Mortgage Rates? At this point it is anyone's guess, however the FED is committed to bringing Inflation down to a manageable number, even at the expense of the US Housing Market. Remember, the did say that the are going to "reset" the Housing Market. Feel free to interpret that any way you like.
Big increase in Foreclosure Starts. Mortgage Rates Still Climbing. More Housing Inventory. Price Reductions Rampant. Home Builders Sucking Wind Now. All of this contributes to a Perfect Storm for the US Housing Market.
It would be rather foolish to think that the largest Landlord in the World would have their head in the sand and let another great acquisition opportunity pass them by. Blackstone is expected to raise $ 50 Billion in order to fully participate in the US Housing market when the downturn hits. Need we say more? They already participate in many aspects of the Global Real Estate market and it looks like they have all hands on deck for the next crash/crisis. You can't say you weren't warned.
Recent Foreclosure statistics have shown us that Foreclosure Filings are now tracking at a volume level that compares to the Pre-Pandemic volume. Based on the first 6 months of 2022, Foreclosure filings should come in some where in between 2018 and 2019 levels. However, if what we hear behind the scenes in true, then the volume should grow even greater as time goes on. The question we have to pose to the Mainstream media is: "Why are homeowners not selling their homes to stop their Foreclosure, considering that they have all this Equity at their disposal"? Yes, inquiring minds really want to know the answer to this question.
Once again we have evidence that the overall Housing Market is cratering: Sales and Contracts getting cancelled by potential Buyers at record rates. Some sales are cancelled due to the recent increase in mortgage rates, which may leave many Buyers unable to afford the property they had hoped to purchase. Other Buyers are now aware that they could have more room to negotiate a better price, now that there is far more inventory on market and Sellers also are forced to reduce their price points and compete. It's not one item that causes a Housing Crash, it is a number of items and issues that when compounded create the chaos in the Housing Market.
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